Cattle prices wow!

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Davidsonranch

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Dec 2, 2011
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SE Oregon
Just saw last night that a full truck load of 500 weight steers went for $3.00 a pound.  I think it was through Superior video livestock auction. I believe they were out of SE Oregon or Northern Nevada. 
Wow!
 

Will

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May 7, 2007
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Jay Ok
Last week I saw a group of 297 pound steers bring $3.98.  That is over $1100.00 for a calf.  I just cannot make those work. 
 

cowboy_nyk

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Aug 28, 2013
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Manitoba, Canada
XBAR - That's my fear, that we price beef right off the plate.  I just hope other foodstuffs continue to increase along with beef. 
 

justintime

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Saskatchewan Canada
In late June, there was a set of 450 grass steers averaging 990 lbs sell for $1.98/ lb  in an internet sale with direct delivery to an Alberta feedlot. That works out to $1960/ steer and $882,000 for the entire set of steers.  In the same sale there were lots of groups of 850 weight steers selling for $2.10- 2.12/ lb. I maintain that we are not getting over paid with these prices. It is just that we are not used to them. Stop and consider what everything you have to buy for your cattle operation cost a few years ago, and what they cost today. As a neighbor of mine said recently, he purchased a new JD round baler off the dealer's lot in 1978 for $5000. He priced a new JD baler from the same dealer this year and it was $62,000. He said it had a few more bells and whistles than the 1978 baler had but the end product ( a round bale for his cows) still looks pretty well the same.

I read a sale report a couple days ago of 870 weight steers from Burwell, Nebraska selling at $2.38/ lb or $2070 each.

I am thinking that we are going to see lots of fluctuations in prices over the next few months but we are not going to see the poorer prices of years past... at least for a few years. There was a pile of herd dispersals last year here and I have heard the fall bred cow sales have been full for over a month. We have a lot of older producers who have decided this is the time to sell their herds. They were going to have to do it within the next 5 years and with the prices now, they are thinking they better get what they can when the times are good.

I have heard 2 reports of commercial cow - calf pairs selling for $4000. but I have not been able to confirm if it is true. I do know that there were 24 pairs offered in the internet sale I mentioned above, which was held in late June, and none of these pairs sold as the reserve of $3000 was not met.

So what do these commercial prices make a good purebred replacement female worth?  I was talking with a purebred producer this morning, who was telling me that he was asked what he would sell some heifers and cows for. He told the guy that with markets today, they should be worth between $5000- $10,000. He said the guy did not flinch and told him to see what he could come up with for $30,000. The times we thought we would never see may be upon us!

In regards to the consumer not buying beef if it gets too high, I think that may be a short term event. Our consumers have benefited from cheap food for decades and we may have a little adjustment time here. We had an Australian couple visit us last weekend and they were saying that Australia can hardly keep up to the demand of beef from China. They said if Chinese beef consumption were to rise by 1% per person, that Australia would not be able to supply it. I asked the manager of the meat department in a supermarket here, yesterday if he had seen any changes in beef sales yet because of the higher prices of beef. He said that actually their beef sales were higher this year than last year, especially on the higher priced cuts like steaks. I asked him if he thought this would change and he felt that it may drop off when the bbq season ends, but it may stay strong through the year as people may have adjusted to the higher prices by then. The first people to reduce their beef purchases will of course be the low income families, but in reality, they were not very big beef purchasers in the past either.
 

RyanChandler

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Jul 6, 2011
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Pottsboro, TX
cowboy_nyk said:
XBAR - That's my fear, that we price beef right off the plate.  I just hope other foodstuffs continue to increase along with beef.

The world is emerging.  Many individuals throughout the world are becoming more and more wealthy and are now entering a socioeconomical class where they can now afford 'luxury foodstuffs.'  The number of elite throughout the world are increasing and the demand for 'luxury foodstuffs' continues to rise.  The average American will soon be choked by the perils of global capitalism. Many will soon realize just how poor they really are when they can no longer even afford to consume the products they produce. 
 

Honkomp

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Jul 1, 2011
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Winterset, Iowa
XBAR _Many will soon realize just how poor they really are when they can no longer even afford to consume the products they produce.

When talking to old timers you find out that beef has been produced by folks that couldn't afford to eat it.  my Grandpa used say,"Beef is for sale venison is for eating!"  This is not my cup of tea but some of us country boys may need to sharpen our arrows to survive until we get rid of our current government leadership and elect some that understand money and international trade.
 

Davidsonranch

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Dec 2, 2011
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SE Oregon
I think justintime had some good points.
The bailer story
Gas $4.15 per gallon in my town
mediocre hay $250-$350 per ton
The money it costs to survive as a ranch is up and these prices are a reflection?  Lowest numbers of cattle in US history? 
Either way it is going to be very interesting to see.

I was actually thinking about some of my "lower budget" kids in the 4-H steer club I lead.  Unless our fair sale starts reflecting the higher beef prices, there will be some kids who won't be able to make the #'s work on their projects.  I make it a point that my club is not about the $, but for some they just cant go too far in the red.
 

chambero

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Feb 12, 2007
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Texas
It's a relatively recent occurrence that avg families could afford beef with regularity.  Goes back to what some of you are trying to say about prices now are still playing catch up.
 

aj

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western kansas
I doubt there will be much demand for a 2,000 pound Shorthorn cow if feed costs 250 bucks a ton. jmo
 

justintime

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Saskatchewan Canada
Davidsonranch said:
I think justintime had some good points.
The bailer story
Gas $4.15 per gallon in my town
mediocre hay $250-$350 per ton
The money it costs to survive as a ranch is up and these prices are a reflection?  Lowest numbers of cattle in US history? 
Either way it is going to be very interesting to see.

I was actually thinking about some of my "lower budget" kids in the 4-H steer club I lead.  Unless our fair sale starts reflecting the higher beef prices, there will be some kids who won't be able to make the #'s work on their projects.  I make it a point that my club is not about the $, but for some they just cant go too far in the red.

Our local fair 4-H sale struggled for many years and many of us tried to get local businesses to support it with limited successes. It was only after we got a couple business owners involved, who urged other business owners to support the 4-H sale, that we started to have great sales.  This year, there were 158 steers sold and the sale averaged over $3.60/ lb. The sale grossed $830,000, and many of the kids got over $5000 for their steers. A few got over $7500. It has been this way for several years now, and it has now got to the point where local businesses want to be a part of this sale. A total change in attitude and because of it, both the 4_H families and the business owners are benefiting. The support the businesses have given has really encouraged people in this area to shop locally. Our local Ford dealer bought 28 steers this year, and has done this for several years. His business is flourishing because of his support of the community.
 

RyanChandler

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aj said:
I doubt there will be much demand for a 2,000 pound Shorthorn cow if feed costs 250 bucks a ton. jmo

Depends on the impact the demand for beef, in general, has on the quality/ quantity grid. 
 

ploughshare

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May 30, 2008
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I don't shop the beef case too often, but I noticed this today and I was blown away at the $11.98/lb. retail price of ribeye steaks.  To my amazement I saw consumers buying them, most likely because it was marked as on "special."  Talk about sticker shock and amazement at the same time.  The price was for one steak that most likely graded high select, even though it was marketed as choice CAB beef.  Low choice would have pushed the boundary for this particular steak.  Based on the shape of the rib and the color of the fat I would agree that it was from a younger beef carcass. I do enjoy the high fed market as a producer, but this worries me a bit.
 

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aj

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western kansas
I was just going to ask how the high end meat prices were holding up. They are all high price meat now. Are the high marbling cattle still bring extra money......the certified angus and etc. .....or does it matter any more?
 

justintime

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I was reading some sale reports last night, and I saw the results of a sale in Nebraska this week where one set of 196 grassed yearling sold. They averaged 1032 lbs and sold for $2.2025 which amounts to $2272.98/ head. This set of steers brought a total of $445808.00.  Some people are saying these prices will drive consumers away. I'm saying it is about time we saw prices like this!  I've waited my entire life to see this happen. When the consumer starts to move away from beef, the prices will adjust accordingly. These prices are only happening now because the supply of beef still doesn't meet the demand. Every other sector of agriculture , and basically all of society has enjoyed a few days in the sun from time to time. It is finally the beef farmer and rancher's turn, and I hope we can enjoy it for awhile. We have a lot of catching up to do!

I was talking with a beef industry leader, and he tells me that right now there has not been any drop in beef sales at the retail level. The North American cow herd is at it's lowest numbers in over 60 years and with the prices we presently have, there will be more cows heading to market this fall. There are already packing plants closing because they cannot get enough cattle to keep their doors open.
 

caledon101

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Jul 27, 2013
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JIT....totally agree. It's been a life long wait for prices that are finally fair for the producer. Farming is the only business I know of where you buy all of your inputs at retail pricing and then sell the final product at wholesale pricing. It's the complete opposite to any other business in that regard.
What makes farmers so special is their infinite optimism; their ability to forget hard times and heart breaking losses and move on. Maybe it's time for farmers to look back and remember how tough it has been over the years and what the real cost has been to them and their families to finally reach a fair price for their beef.
 

vc

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Jul 24, 2007
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So-Cal
Well, beef has been going up for years at the retailer, just not for the the producer. It may just be time for the others to sharpen their pencils. Somebody has been making a profit off of beef, if no one was making money the industry would have gone away by now. The ones who have been making the most money may just have to shrink their profit margin to keep competitive.
 

BTDT

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Jan 26, 2013
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Tyson just announced they were closing a beef processing plant in MN due to lack of cattle. 

I have heard many experts say high beef prices are here for at least 5 more years.  Keep in mind those might have been the same experts that predicted great farming income in the late 70's and early 80's...

Take these prices while you can.
 
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