Drought Predictions

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mccannfarms

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Dec 2, 2007
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243
Location
Falcon MO
Ok well 2013 is underway. I live in southern MO in the heart of cow/calf country and was wondering what everyone else's weather predictions for this year would be.
I personally think that we will once again fall below normal rainfall but not as severely as last year.. but added to the already significant deficits the consequences will be huge. 
 

Will

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May 7, 2007
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744
Location
Jay Ok
I will make a prediction that if 2013 is as dry in Oklahoma as 2012 that cow numbers will be cut in half in this state.
 

mccannfarms

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Dec 2, 2007
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243
Location
Falcon MO
Same here in MO... and if 2 of the top cow calf states loose that many cows beef prices will go stupid high in the grocery store
 

ALTSIMMY 79

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May 25, 2010
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672
Location
Spring Creek , Iowa
Im afraid iowa is in for it all over again also. We have been pretty dry all winter,  very little snow to speak of and it wasnt here for long. Not gonna be good ! I cut way back on cow numbers all ready.
 

aandtcattle

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Nov 18, 2010
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489
Location
Hay Springs, Nebraska
I bought a feed truck on sunday with hopes that I can feed at least my best 100-150 cows this summer if need be.  Pastures are roached, damn little moisture this fall and winter and current conditions dont look favorable.  I freeze branded heifers friday in jeans and a wife-beater!  65 degrees in January?? What is going on?
 

PRC

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Joined
Jan 24, 2013
Messages
9
Southwest Texas  has been experincing below average rainfall  or drought conditions for  years, if  we fail to get rain this year it will be the  ninth ---during this period we had two 6 mo. breaks , but no  follow up  rains---most concerning to me is the continued wide spread severe  drought in Northern Mexico, with no releif in sight----normally  these things begin to break to our south  , with moisture moving to the north----The Texas  cow herd is  practicaly gone , a  packer is closing plants, feedlots  are closing as well , auctions  are unable to continue weekly sales due to a lack of stock--- taking these points into consideration,  we are due some good years.  May and June will tell us what we have ahead of us...
 

justintime

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May 26, 2007
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4,346
Location
Saskatchewan Canada
Like many places in the plains of the US and Canada, we are never more than about 3 weeks from a potential drought most years. I recently heard a forecast from Environment Canada that predicted warmer than normal March - April, with one or two late April snow storms. May was going to be warmer than normal with average to below average rain, depending on where the showers hit. But this guy is predicting a very wet June.... much above normal moisture.

Personally I will believe it when I see it!  These guys are terrible at their weather predictions. They predicted last winter was going to far below normal temperatures with lots of snow. It turned out to be the second mildest winter since records were recorded and we had virtually no snow. I wore sneakers feeding cows in January!  I think these guys have the most perfect job I know of. They are  the only people I know of, who can  be wrong 90% of the time and still keep their jobs.

Here is my weather prediction... it is going to clear up cloudy and we are going to get some warm frosts.
 

firesweepranch

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Jun 17, 2010
Messages
1,685
Location
SW MO
Today, for the first time in more than 75 days, our wood stove went cold! We heat by wood, which means it was WARM! 72 today!!! I am pretty sure we broke a new record. Tomorrow, severe weather expected......
 

aj

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Jul 5, 2006
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western kansas
Here at Goodland Ks. the third dryest year on record. 9 inches of precip in 2012. Tribune less then 8 inches. We didn't even get the winter wheat sprouted and up this fall.
 

aj

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Jul 5, 2006
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western kansas
I don't know if there might be a crp release again this year or not. We are in the maxed out area on the drought monitor. We had a 7 year drought roughly 15 years ago. I remember the one year we had some wheat that was so bad it was adjusted out at 2 bushel in May for crop insurance. They released it and we turned cows on these acres for a month or so. It was real sparse but the limited plants got big....and since it was sparce kept coming on.
 

justintime

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May 26, 2007
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Saskatchewan Canada
aj said:
Here at Goodland Ks. the third dryest year on record. 9 inches of precip in 2012. Tribune less then 8 inches. We didn't even get the winter wheat sprouted and up this fall.

9-10 inches is an average precipation year for us here.
 

aj

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western kansas
I think the average for Goodland is 17 inches. They didn't start keeping records untill around 1880's......I think.
 

aj

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western kansas
I googled Sascathewan average rainfall and their table said it was 14 inches a year average precipitation.
 

aj

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western kansas
JIT....you were accurrate to within a 31% error......made a hell of a story though......steer planet grin. 9.5 divided by 13.8.
 

justintime

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Saskatchewan Canada
aj said:
JIT....you were accurrate to within a 31% error......made a hell of a story though......steer planet grin. 9.5 divided by 13.8.

I live in the very south part of Saskatchewan close to the Montana/ ND border. The average moisture for most of Saskatchewan is much more than what we get here. If we get 10 inches a year, we think we have had a good year. Of course when the rains come makes a big difference. I have seen pretty decent crops come off here with only 2-3 inches of rain during the growing season. We can get years with much higher precip than what is normal, like 2011, but we can get years that are much below average as well. Last year ( 2012) we had about 4 inches of rain before July 1st and then never had a measureable shower or rain until November. We would have had a disasterous hay and pasture situation if we had not had so much rain the previous year.

This is pretty dry country. I usually put 22-25 pairs per 160 acre pasture of tame grass and oftentimes have to pull some pairs out in late summer so that there will be grass for the rest until fall. I used to lease a 1000 acres of native pasture  and I was only allowed to put 23 pairs on it from May 20th and I was supposed to have them off the pasture by mid September. Believe me, that is a pile of fence to check and keep repaired for that few cows. We cut our hay once a year, and oftentimes we have very poor haycrops. In the decade of the 80s, we cut our hay 2 times, and one of those years we only cut it to try to get a  few bales to use in the barn. I oftentimes bale 800-1000 acres of hay to get enough for my cow herd. I am very fortunate right now, to have had 5 excellent haycrops in a row so we have a good carry over of feed. Right now, my cows are wintering on hay that is 4-5 years old. I am trying to use up the old stuff before calving .
aj, Mr Google may be close to correct in regards to the average rainfall of Saskatchewan but I guarantee you that parts of this province are much below this. I would expect that the area around the cities of Regina and Saskatoon may get at least 50% more rainfall than we do here.
Saskatchewan is a big province. I am much closer to you aj, than I am to the Northern border of Saskatchewan.
 

Aussie

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Jun 27, 2010
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Location
Tasmania Australia
In the country of extremes we are just getting over bush fires to be hit by massive floods in the north of the country. Parts of Queensland received up to 800 ml in a day. Average rain where I live is 45 inches
 

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