CALF PRICES

[GONEWEST]

There has been a distinct drop on prices paid for calves, particularly steers in the sales here this spring. Does anyone else see the same thing? With the price of feed going up, the price of fuel at stupid levels, I don't think the average family who buys a calf or two every year can afford to feed as many or afford to go to as many shows. And since there is no money in the steer side here, I just think it's gotten to where the loss on the project is more than most want to take.

It is difficult to find calves out west of the quality I have found in the past, that are able to be transported here for the prices families are willing to pay this year. Fuel cost, feed costs,  and the uncertainty of people being able to keep their jobs has put a damper on things. One sale here today about 1/4 of the cattle in it. last year they sold them all.

Anyone seeing anything similar?

 

[GONEWEST]

GUESS NOT! LOL

 

[JSchroeder]

That's what happens when everyone and their dog starts raising show steers.

 

[aj]

I think there is a world of hurt coming down on the livestock industry in general. I don't see how 600# steers will bring .90 next year. Maybe .80.......I hope I'm wrong.

 

[DLD]

It hasn't seemed to have backed off much here in OK or TX from what I've seen and heard. It would certainly seem to me like it should, but if anything they just keep getting higher - or at least the better ones do. And I'm not just talkin' about the few very best ones, I'm talkin' about most all of the pretty good ones. Of course, the economy here is driven by petroleum and agriculture, both of which are pretty good places to be right now.

Another thing I've observed is that you've gotta be pretty optimistic to compete in this deal anyway, and I guess that optimism runs pretty deep...

 

[JbarL]

That's what happens when everyone and their dog starts raising show steers.

it seems a bit ironic to talk about show cattle and "price per pound" in the same topic...after watching the expo auction, and seeing decent cattle being sold for way over any "price per pound"  sceniero that exists at "any" local stock sale, it is easy to let the $ signs distort and override any  "price per pound" forumula that is the basis of todays"cattle idustry". you think that 5K is alot for a heifer, and would love to sell just half of ours for that amount....but in reality when you go out side and see em' loadin' up in 37K trucks pulling 22 K trailers, you soon realize that "profit" is merely in the "eyes of the beholder" only....and fuel prices, feed costs, and other reladted" commercial cattle industry" issues, seem to be a bit farther down the priority list to the show cattle exclusives than the "average" producer. Taking advantage of the progrresses the industry has made in  the last 8 yrs in areas of quality affordable breeding options....animal health , pastue and feed advances, and the ability to share all this info ...good or bad...has given us all the oppertunity to operate at a more efficient level....as it does seem that evenone and there dog is into the show cattle businees now....especially if you look at all the new batch of businees card, web sites, and mailer "newcommers" on "the scene"....but in reality the participation "in" the show ring is up far less than 10% on average....some areas have increased in "participation" more...some have stayed the same and some have actually lost participation numbers....more suppliers...same amount of participants? hum...i dont think its the "operating costs" that is at question here...its simply  paying to much money in "speculative" investments ( be it cattle or enron )  in a flooded market.  jbarl

 

[TJ]

I think there is a world of hurt coming down on the livestock industry in general. I don't see how 600# steers will bring .90 next year. Maybe .80.......I hope I'm wrong.

Time to buy low input genetics that work on grass!   

 

[shorthorns r us]

I think there is a world of hurt coming down on the livestock industry in general. I don't see how 600# steers will bring .90 next year. Maybe .80.......I hope I'm wrong.

Time to buy low input genetics that work on grass!   

did kit pharo join our forum?

 

[TJ]

It hasn't seemed to have backed off much here in OK or TX from what I've seen and heard. It would certainly seem to me like it should, but if anything they just keep getting higher - or at least the better ones do. And I'm not just talkin' about the few very best ones, I'm talkin' about most all of the pretty good ones. Of course, the economy here is driven by petroleum and agriculture, both of which are pretty good places to be right now.

Another thing I've observed is that you've gotta be pretty optimistic to compete in this deal anyway, and I guess that optimism runs pretty deep...

I don't know what they have sold for the last couple of weeks, but much like in your area, calf prices are still pretty high around here.  

 

 

[Chap]

The very best will still bring good money, even extreme amounts of it if you can have an elite calf.  the middle of the road calves are gettting tougher to sell.  3 reasons in my mind for that.  1st the competition is getting much better and the Average has been moving up.  ET and continued selection has made it easier for everyone to have a couple pretty nice steers.  Read that as Supply and Demand!  So unless you are keeping pace and utilizing the best, most proven genetics each year, you are falling behind the curve.  2nd, I have found those nice "county fair steers" are just really hard to move at much of a premium.  Seems to me that when you take into account point 1 above and then add in the idea that those that are more bargain shoppers have options to choose from and probably less disposable income to play with.  3rd and maybe most importantly, it is much easier to find cattle than it used to be.  The internet has made it possible for all of us to see calves that we never would known existed 10 years ago.  Read that as price and product discovery.
I have generally found the market to be broken into these catagories.  market price - <$1500, 1500-3000, and >$3000.  The diffenence in ranges can usually be attributed to networking and marketing.  

 

[TJ]

I think there is a world of hurt coming down on the livestock industry in general. I don't see how 600# steers will bring .90 next year. Maybe .80.......I hope I'm wrong.

Time to buy low input genetics that work on grass!   

did kit pharo join our forum?

Nope, but TJ the Lowliner did!    ;D  

Unlike Kit, I have next to nothing to sell (except semen).  I've actually been devoting much of my time helping other people sell their cattle.  Also, unlike Kit, I wont make much money by making a statement like that & I will probably will end up hurting myself (if people buy Lowlines that I could've bought, I wont be able to buy them as cheap as I could've).  I really think that people would be better off, especially if the cycle is trending down, if they either sell out now, or buy low input genetics that work on grass.  I've seen the data & it shows that some people make money while the majority lose money in a down cycle.  Who are the ones that are still making the money?   The low input producers.  

Doc's co-owner, Cindy Jackson, told me that she made more profit last year than she ever did raising show winning, purebred Angus.  Just this last week she told me that she officially resigned her membership from the regional Angus Association that she has belonged to for years & she has decided that this will be the last year that she raises Angus cattle.  She's going totally with Lowlines & Lowline crosses from this point forward.  Why?  Because Cindy can make more money raising them than she can show winning Angus cattle.

I realize that low input grass cattle goes against the grain on a board like this.  But, money can be made with $90, 6 weight steers.  It can be made with $80, 6 weight steers too.  However, with $80 / 6 weights, you can't make money with a feed truck driving out to your place once per week, but it can be made with low input, grass genetics.  

Furthermore, unlike Kit, I actually like show calves!  

 

[TJ]

The very best will still bring good money, even extreme amounts of it if you can have an elite calf.  the middle of the road calves are gettting tougher to sell.  3 reasons in my mind for that.  1st the competition is getting much better and the Average has been moving up.  ET and continued selection has made it easier for everyone to have a couple pretty nice steers.  Read that as Supply and Demand!  So unless you are keeping pace and utilizing the best, most proven genetics each year, you are falling behind the curve.  2nd, I have found those nice "county fair steers" are just really hard to move at much of a premium.  Seems to me that when you take into account point 1 above and then add in the idea that those that are more bargain shoppers have options to choose from and probably less disposable income to play with.  3rd and maybe most importantly, it is much easier to find cattle than it used to be.  The internet has made it possible for all of us to see calves that we never would known existed 10 years ago.  Read that as price and product discovery.
I have generally found the market to be broken into these catagories.  market price - <$1500, 1500-3000, and >$3000.  The diffenence in ranges can usually be attributed to networking and marketing.  

I agree.  The top end calves will always sell for more.  If you want to survive selling breeding stock/show steers, you probably will be money ahead spending extra to get a really nice herd bull, and/or aggressively AI.  Also, everyone would be best served if they culled the bottom end of their own herd right now. 

 

[Dusty]

I think in the last few years the price for calves, in the midwest, especially the top end, and the elite few has gone up quite considerably.  4-5 years ago there were only a handful of calves that sold for 20K+, now there are quite a few for over 20K and the extreme top is closer to 40-50K.  I would attribute this to that the farm economy is rolling pretty good now and farmers can write off a showsteer a lot easier than they can a speedboat.

 

[CAB]

Dusty, do you think that the "FARMERS" are pushing the elite ones?  I thought it was the doctors, lawyers, ET guru's, ect. that were pushing.

 

[Dusty]

Dusty, do you think that the "FARMERS" are pushing the elite ones?  I thought it was the doctors, lawyers, ET guru's, ect. that were pushing.

I know of a few farm families that have a pretty high dollar show string of calves in the barn.... 

 

[knabe]

I think there is a world of hurt coming down on the livestock industry in general. I don't see how 600# steers will bring .90 next year. Maybe .80.......I hope I'm wrong.

Time to buy low input genetics that work on grass! 

did kit pharo join our forum?

ohlde has been selling to kit pharo for years.  i'm thinking ohlde was there earlier and saw the wisdom of letting pharo and others push that market with him as a supplier for that standard deviation of his herd.

 

[red]

I agree dusty. We have some families that farm & make their lively-hood selling high $ calves. Most just pass through their barn & are not raised.

Red

 

[Dusty]

I agree dusty. We have some families that farm & make their lively-hood selling high $ calves. Most just pass through their barn & are not raised.

Red

I didn't mean farmer-traders, I mean't families where farming is their main source of income.  Grain farmers have seen a dramatic increase in net profits the last couple years.  Those people that were buying 10-20K calves are now running those calves to 30K+.

 

[JbarL]

The very best will still bring good money, even extreme amounts of it if you can have an elite calf.  the middle of the road calves are gettting tougher to sell.  3 reasons in my mind for that.  1st the competition is getting much better and the Average has been moving up.  ET and continued selection has made it easier for everyone to have a couple pretty nice steers.  Read that as Supply and Demand!  So unless you are keeping pace and utilizing the best, most proven genetics each year, you are falling behind the curve.  2nd, I have found those nice "county fair steers" are just really hard to move at much of a premium.  Seems to me that when you take into account point 1 above and then add in the idea that those that are more bargain shoppers have options to choose from and probably less disposable income to play with.  3rd and maybe most importantly, it is much easier to find cattle than it used to be.  The internet has made it possible for all of us to see calves that we never would known existed 10 years ago.  Read that as price and product discovery.
I have generally found the market to be broken into these catagories.  market price - <$1500, 1500-3000, and >$3000.  The diffenence in ranges can usually be attributed to networking and marketing.  

I agree.  The top end calves will always sell for more.  If you want to survive selling breeding stock/show steers, you probably will be money ahead spending extra to get a really nice herd bull, and/or aggressively AI.  Also, everyone would be best served if they culled the bottom end of their own herd right now. 

that seems to  be exactually  when the "price per pound" realities set into the show cattle  side fo the topic ....as you cull your "bottom end" @ price per pound/ or less than expected prices...good deals  for the buyers abound...especially at a low market, for slaughter or starting there own "brush herds".......we cant wait for "stimulus cow" time, .. prices were quite low at athens county last weekend...one mans cull "bottom end" still has genitics and attrabutes desirable to healthy commercial stock , so now the "not so show type generators", have an oppertunity to take advantage of both "over estimated expectations" of possibly a larger number of over zealous breeders, "and" a low market..coupled with stock with good genitics.....alot of people are going to end up  with some real good eatin'  of someones greatest efforts...some may enjoy a 3/6 hd. of decent breeding/and eating for several years to come....when feed/fuel costs becomes an issue of  any operation....it dosnt matter if you have 5 bucks a pound or .73 a pound "in" them...iits a bit to late, and at best a bit  presumputious  to expect anything but market rates , and low prices for "average" stock.....most "average" stock is simply "average" because it needs to go to open a spot for another "oppertunity" at "the great one"....as the penhookers pick the stock sales clean....there are some hard workin' foks out there as well , upgrading there herds with alot of "average" show folks stock at below average "expected"  prices.  the prices are low at the sales.....but there are good oppertunites for decent cattle at less than "speculated" prices...a buyers market for sure...jbarl

 

[GONEWEST]

Thanks for the replys. Most have come from the midwest and TX, OK. So maybe it's just a regional thing here. The difference is that this area, although we have had  ever increasing livestock project participation over the last several years to the point of having a very large number of calves shown, the state is becoming less and less rural. The economy is surely not based on petroleum and agriculture. Thousands of jobs have been lost each month over the past several years and replaced by those which pay 1/2 or in some instances 1/3 of what the previous jobs paid. Since the steer deal is a losing proposition here anyway, it wouldn't surprise me to see less steers shown in our state next year.