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Offline shorthorngirl2010

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Destination Ahead-- Trainwreck??
« on: July 26, 2011, 12:44:38 AM »
As I was setting in the tractor today discing up wheat stubble, I was listening to noon markets & they happened to have a report about cattle numbers and projections... summarized, the US herd inventory is at the lowest number its been since they started keeping records (99.4 million head), and there is 4.1% more cattle in feedlots in the month of June ('11) vs. the same time last year, even though analysts expected to see a ~7.6% decrease compared to a year ago.  That being said, with numbers in feedlots beyond projected estimates and prices sky high STILL, paired with drought stricken areas & numerous producers selling out, are we headed for a plummet in prices, or is the low herd inventory going to maintain high prices, simply because of supply & demand?

Just something to think about..
-Sam

*Disclaimer- this is a thread to simply DISCUSS what you think is ahead for the industry.  I hope, if it comes down to it, we remember that each is entitled to their own opinion.
Impossible as they may seem, you've got to fight for every dream, because who's to know which one you let go would have made you complete

Offline knabe

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Re: Destination Ahead-- Trainwreck??
« Reply #1 on: July 26, 2011, 01:22:13 AM »
why don't you mix the straw with urea or distillers?

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21110091
"The generation that told us to question authority, has now become the Authority we cannot question!"

Offline Pipeliner

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Re: Destination Ahead-- Trainwreck??
« Reply #2 on: July 26, 2011, 11:32:10 AM »
In Canada in '02 we were hit with a massive drought, like in some of the states right now. There was no feed or grass anywheres. That winter we had our typical cold long miserable winter. In the spring of '03 when everyone thought prices couldn't get any lower they did, the bottom fell out of the industry when BSE hit. You couldn't even give a cow away, no word of a lie auction markets and feed lots weren't even taking older cows. Farms big and small went under and banks took over. The cow herd in Canada right now is down about 15% give or take from '01.

But as the saying goes even a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then, the last 2 years have been unreal for feed and grass. Bulls are leaving the farm faster then ever and cow prices are way up. We have rain, water, feed, grass and cow prices.

My thoughts and prayers are with the farmers and ranchers that are living with drought right now. My honest thoughts are if you guys don't get rain soon it'll get worse before it gets good again. But when it gets good it'll be better then before. Why? Because you'll have learned what so many of us have up here. It'll make you a more diversified farmer. You'll find new cheaper ways to feed cows and bed cows. It'll make your herd a better herd cause you won't have time or money to keep the average cow that is hard doing. Most of all it'll make you a better breeder of cattle. You'll be breeding cows that truly are easy fleshing and convert feed to pounds on what ever is in front of them.

The last few years of drought and BSE up here we've been able to feed our cows cheaper and weed out cattle that can't convert feed. We've also found ways to market our cattle different and get the most outta them. It's the circle of life whether your a cow or a bug numbers increase and decrease there are peaks and valleys. But farmers are incredibly innovative and resilient!

Offline Gargan

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Re: Destination Ahead-- Trainwreck??
« Reply #3 on: July 26, 2011, 01:08:52 PM »
I believe some of the reason for the high prices relates back to how weak the US Dollar has become. With much of our high quality meat cut being exported now, we've become involved in a global market. Even tho we are seeing higher $/cwt for cattle, is the overall value we are receiving as good as when the dollar was worth twice as much. Just my crazy thoughts on the whole matter!!
Welfare's purpose should be to eliminate, as far as possible, the need for its own existence.  -Ronald reagan

Offline mark tenenbaum

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Re: Destination Ahead-- Trainwreck??
« Reply #4 on: July 26, 2011, 05:54:30 PM »
You probably know more than me about general beef markets-but it would have to be affected also by the lack of product in other parts of the world due to various conditions such as earthquakes famines etc-problem is-those who need help are for the most part, destitute.Sos the Dollar. It is gut  wrenching for me to see whats happening down South-and once those cattle are gone-(along with years of selection and developement)-foods gonna have to get expensive-and a huge core of good cattle will be gone.Meanwhile, the middlemen are yielding the the same huge money they get where things are thriving-maybe we need some Norwegian punk to visit them instead of innocent children.Oh well,guess supply will definitely dictate things at the point that our cow calf population is 1/3 the norm.Maybe one day we can say to Habeeeb Salam-Allah-Mohammed: NO CRUDE,NO FOOD. O0
« Last Edit: July 26, 2011, 06:14:38 PM by mark tenenbaum »

Offline knabe

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Re: Destination Ahead-- Trainwreck??
« Reply #5 on: July 26, 2011, 07:17:20 PM »
NO CRUDE,NO FOOD. O0

it used to be that way before oil.

the middle east is trying to diversify, but without soil and water, they will have a rude awakening when oil starts to run out over there and the have no other source of income to trade with.

there will be lots of angry people with a social infrastructure incompatible with other regions of the world, hampering their ability to migrate and everyone else's ability to adjust.  that will be more of an economic shock than the rather small potatoes of phasing out subsidies.
"The generation that told us to question authority, has now become the Authority we cannot question!"

Offline mark tenenbaum

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Re: Destination Ahead-- Trainwreck??
« Reply #6 on: July 26, 2011, 08:56:15 PM »
I would agree with Knabe-However,I think the timing is still off kilter-Our cheap oil economy will no longer be the basis of( ours) or any economy-and realistic  natural gas conversions -600 mile electric vehicles etc-will come to fruition. However-I would guess JMO-that the next ploy with all the speedbumps, by EXXON-et-al-will be the various -and very expensive measures of shale -sand etc oil extraction to keep thier stranglehold (along with vehicle manufacturers) on the antiquated fossil fuel engine mentality-It might sound medieval-but even after we get around to doing some retro fits etc (like tens of thousands of vehicles already done in other civilised countries) food will become much more valuable-as will water-against the so-called trade currancies of peak oil-which is starting to run out all over the ArAAAB areas-I saw pictures of people in Somalia today trying to escape draught and famine-God or the elements have no mercy on peoples in many parts of the world-glad Im here-you: the farmers,hold alot of keys.There seems to be a terrible "natural" selection occuring in various parts of the globe. O0

Offline Will

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Re: Destination Ahead-- Trainwreck??
« Reply #7 on: July 27, 2011, 10:16:51 AM »
Several years ago we had a man come to our church and preach a sermon over Revelations.  The one thing I remember him saying was that in Revelation it says Armageddon will start for water rights.  I have never looked it up so I will not say if it is true or not.
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