beef futures

[worthabit]

I see the futures are closing down lately. Is it all based on the economy? I read somewhere that the cowherd is at levels comparable to the fifties so shouldn't that mean a tight supply?

 

[knabe]

the economy is based on the economy.

 

[shortdawg]

That's a mouthful Knabe

 

[justintime]

The old supply: demand equations don't seem to mean much in a recession. If the media would just shut up about how bad things are, we would probably come out of this faster. The media keeps telling us that the worst is yet to come.... and this causes some to tighten their belts.

The real estate markets seem to be slowly recovering in some areas. Some areas have a long ways to go yet though. Lots of Canadians are buying homes in warmer states and getting some incredible buys. There are many seminars being held here in regards to buying Arizona real estate.

I really don't know why beef futures are still slumping. The North America beef herd is at 1951 levels.... and our population is much higher than then. Pork and chicken are also lower, so it is an unusual situation. Hope it turns around soon.

 

[MSweeney_199]

Also you have to consider  things like packers can't get rid of cow hides and the amount of holstein cull cows on the market.

 

[bpratt09]

The Big thing is the Dairy Buyout these cows have been getting culled lately

 

[rtmcc]

A couple things to remember about the cattle futures:
-The commodity funds have much more influence over the board than the supply and demand of cattle and beef.  The funds only make money when there is movement in the board.  They don't care which way it moves, as long as it is moving.  Seems as tho they like it better when the movement defies the logic of the producers and packers.
-The dairy buy out is having some effect as the packers that harvest both cows and fed cattle are  maybe killing a few more cows due to availability.
-Producers that hedged their cattle are selling them due to the very favorable basis which may snow ball and drive the board down due to a lower cash market.
-Gas has gone up about $.75 a gallon in the past month and in spite of us going into the "grilling season" people may not have the money to spend $ 6.99 a pound for rib eyes for diner for a family of four on a tuesday night.  Now pork loins at $1.69 per lbs. look cheeper than hamburger to the house wife. 
-Daily kill and tonnage is at near record levels.  We keep hearing about the gap in the cattle supply but it never seems to come thru.

I'm on both sides of the fence as a packer buyer and beef producer and it pains me to see the equity drain on all facets of animal agriculture the past few years.
Lets hope the future is brighter for all segments.

 

[Cattledog]

The real estate markets seem to be slowly recovering in some areas. Some areas have a long ways to go yet though. Lots of Canadians are buying homes in warmer states and getting some incredible buys. There are many seminars being held here in regards to buying Arizona real estate.

Not trying to hi-jak the post but my wife and I just sold our house after putting a sign in the front yard for three days.  We found a place closer to the family farm IN THE COUNTRY!  Don't mean to shout but I have lived inside city limits for the past 9 years and I thought I was about to explode.  I have a 9 month old and have been chomping at the bit to get her out to the country where every child should be raised!  <cowboy> 

 

[knabe]

The real estate markets seem to be slowly recovering in some areas. Some areas have a long ways to go yet though. Lots of Canadians are buying homes in warmer states and getting some incredible buys. There are many seminars being held here in regards to buying Arizona real estate.

the real estate market is in equilibrium when rent equals a payment. the comparison should be based on that rather than the price drop from the highs.

 

[simtal]

exports to our biggest consumers (Canada and Mexico) have dropped due to less favorable exchange rate.