Using EPD's in a show?

[Doc]

If epd's are honest and accurate, it might not be such a bad thing.  But using them in the show ring is just that much more incentive to fudge on them for those who are willing. Even the most honest and accurate of epd's are still just that - estimates.  I have less problem with using actual performance data in showring evaluation, but still believe that the proof is in the animal itself. 

That's exactly what I'm saying.  Thank you!!!

 

[ROAD WARRIOR]

Red Angus was a small insignificant breed just a few long years ago, and then EPD's were used in the show ring. They are now one, if not the fastest growing breeds in the country. Coinincidence? I don't think so.
Isn't it nice to be the leader once instead of the follower? Or maybe the reds aren't ready to be a leader yet.

Use everything as a tool to your advantage and liking, that includes epd's, visual appraisal, AI'ing and ET. Someone who doesn't use epd's AT ALL isn't taking advantage of technology and the data base the association has. Someone who ONLY uses epd's isn't using common sense or their eye balls. Someone who uses BOTH is a modern cattle producer who realizes the advantages of using genetic history (EPD's) to select a visually appealing animal.

This is a quote from a well known Red Angus breeder that has ran a purebred herd of R A catlle for over 30 years. "These cattle are so good even the idiots haven't been able to screw them up with their politics and computers".
I don't think EPD's can take credit for bringing Red Angus to the for front of the beef industry, it just might have something to do with the progress the breed has made over the years (believe it or not even before the EPD guru tried to kill our shows) and the fact that they are good ,sound, trouble free cattle that do the job on a minimum of imput. It may not have hurt too much that a few of us have spent our money and time dragging our best out in the public eye, rather than sit idley by and let everyone believe that they are just a breed with production records from the 50's. I've seen alot of change in the 30 some years that I have been in and around the breed, some good and some not so good.
I will pose this question to all - If we put so little faith in the men and women that we hire for judges and their abilities, why don't we find someone capable of doing the job?
RW

 

[Show Heifer]

I will answer your question RW.... It is obvious from all the post on SP and other boards the only people we think are qualified to judge our shows is ourselves (as in those who complain all the time about judges being stupid, blind, etc) and everyone else has no idea what the hell is going on and couldn't find a good one if it kicked them in the shins. So, if we think we are the only ones qualified to judge why don't more people step up and judge? My guess, they can't take the heat and are afraid they will piss off the wrong person and therefore ruin our future in the breed. Or, it is just too big of hassle to judge. Geesh, actually have to justifiy and give oral reasons? Naw, too big of problem.
My other reason is, those same "know it all people" do not have enough respect in their breed to warrant them being ASK to judge a show.

Actually, I have seen many judges do a very good job, and I haven't even agreed with them, but as long as they are consistant and can justify their placings, I have no trouble with them. Those that are inconsistant from class to class, or make up reasons, I DO have a problem with.

This is also a quote from a long time breeder of RA: "Who cares about genetic defects. Use carrier bulls on commercial red cattle and you will have no trouble. Ever. The whole OS thing is a figment of someones imagination." 
Yep straight from the ol'breeders mouth.  Being a long time breeder of a breed doesn't make them an expert, nor does it make them right. Maybe that is the trouble with some of these breeds: The changing of the guard isn't so easy when the ol'dogs won't let the newbies change things. And the ol'dogs refuse to keep up with modern times.

 

[ROAD WARRIOR]

IF YOU ARE IN THE BUSINESS OF SELLING BREEDING STOCK YOU CANNOT AFFORD TO IGNORE ANY GENETIC DEFECT THAT IS IN YOUR PROSPECTIVE BREED. I sold out of bulls in 2 weeks this past spring for one reason. All of my new customers, and yes I said all, were former Black Angus bull buyers. There is enough "press" out there that the commercial breeders are hearing rumbleings of the defects and for some reason "the locals" have all heard about the blacks multiple defects. Those who choose to take the "defects won't affect me because I sell to commercial buyers" are on the road to a new carreer. I have no doubt that there will be more defects found in all breeds, if you look hard enough sooner or later you will find something. The key to surviving the purebred business will be in staying clean if that is possible.
As far as judges go - I have shown under a bunch of them in the course of 3 decades, some were excellent, some were decent and some were terrible. With that said I would not have much trouble finding qualified people that have done and continue to do a good job sorting cattle in the showring. I also know of several excellent cattlemen that could do an excellent job placing the animals, but would likely falter on the microphone.
Alot of the credit for the RA breed progressing as rapidly as it has in the last few years should go to the "young guns" that have taken over, sometimes not without a serious fight from some of the "good old boys" that were content with staying where they had been stagnent for years. That is why it took so long to can our former exec sec, we had to change the guard on the board to get enough votes to do it. A process that some of us behind the scenes worked on for at least 4 years before it happened. And trust me freedom from tyranny didn't come without a price. RW

 

[Doc]

I will answer your question RW.... It is obvious from all the post on SP and other boards the only people we think are qualified to judge our shows is ourselves (as in those who complain all the time about judges being stupid, blind, etc) and everyone else has no idea what the hell is going on and couldn't find a good one if it kicked them in the shins. So, if we think we are the only ones qualified to judge why don't more people step up and judge? My guess, they can't take the heat and are afraid they will piss off the wrong person and therefore ruin our future in the breed. Or, it is just too big of hassle to judge. Geesh, actually have to justifiy and give oral reasons? Naw, too big of problem.
My other reason is, those same "know it all people" do not have enough respect in their breed to warrant them being ASK to judge a show.

S H, I think if you go look at my original post that started this I said " I think Jack Ward did a pretty decent job". My problem is with him using numbers that are bogus. And before you jump in & say that he was using what was given to him I understand that.  I'm saying we shouldn't give those numbers to anyone until the numbers are more accurate.

 

[ROAD WARRIOR]

Doc - animals that are not in production only have interim EPDs with personal performance records added as they come. Very low accuracies for several years until they are proven. RW

 

[GONEWEST]

I tried, I really, really tried. I've tried for several days. But I just can't help myself.

Using EPD's to evaluate show cattle is the stupidest, most absurd, idiotic,  illogical, fallacious,asinine, moronic, witless, hair brained idea ever concocted by a breed association. The whole premise behind this is to make the show ring appear more in tune with the commercial industry. And the Red Angus breed doesn't have the patent to this brainless idea, the Simmental breed leads the way! Our PTP (Progress Through Performance) program is the laughing stock of the industry. Ask any judge who's judged a national show recently, emphasis on RECENTLY.

The inarguable reason why this is so stupid is that the EPD's are grossly inaccurate. Speaking for our breed in particular, we report data by the most complex reporting system ever designed by man, The THE program (Total Herd Enrollment, we also employ a staff member who's job it is just to come up with catchy acronyms).  If you have a herd totally devoid of anything but purebred Simmental cattle it's maybe not so bad. But many have diversified operations and if you have some % cows say having Charolais ET calves, along with some varying percentages and maybe a couple other breeds. If you don't report EVERYTHING you have the registration fees are so high that registering animals and thereby reporting data is no longer cost effective so the data just goes unreported. SO that's what I do. I don't report anything unless I sell it and the owner requires papers. I have been told by SEVERAL large breeders that the program is such a hassle they just make data up as they go  in order to get their animals registered. That's HUNDREDS of animals data being reported inaccurately in order to make the job small enough to be handled in a reasonable amount of time. Then ad to that the producers who manipulate data in order to make theirs look better on paper and what you have is a bunch of numbers that mean nothing.

Show animals for the most part have no progeny. They have EPD accuracies in the single digits for many traits. So you're going to tell me it's a good idea to judge animals using numbers that reflect .09 accuracy that were derived from data that was not reality? Is that what I'm hearing? Say that out loud and see if it makes any sense at all to you.

Don't give me the argument that there are already inaccurate things int he show ring like birth dates and breed composition and the like. Why would you want to just throw another inaccurate factor in there? How much sense does that make?

If you're judging a bull and he has the best EPD profile money can buy, but he doesn't have the structure, evaluated by visual appraisal, to service 30 or 40 cows a year for 7 or 8 years what good is he? He's useless. Give me his actual performance measures along with visual appraisal and I can make a better determination on him than all the yearling EPD's you could round up. Now if I needed to know that he had the highest REA EPD in our breed and that I could expect a difference of .25 square inches of REA improvement in my cattle over the average Simmental bull, then I'd have to go to my esteemed associations EPD's to find that out. They spend my money so wisely.

Another example of how slippery a slope using EPD's is. Many years ago when Simmentals were still spotted we used what were called EBV's (Estimated Breeding Values). Not nearly as many traits were evaluated as there are today. EBV's were hot as far as marketing went. So we bred many cows to a bull that was known as a 5 way trait leader with accuracies over .90, as good as you could do as far as EBV's were concerned. During the time the cows were pregnant, Cornell University who calculated these EBV's decided to change their mathematical model. That made the bull now a leader for only CE and BW and all of my calves were basically non marketable. They were the same calves they would have been if the model hadn't changed. But due to a different way of manipulating the same data, now they were deemed not as good.

In our breed, and maybe all, growth and milk are considered antagonistic traits as far a EPD formulas go. Time after time after time we see cows with Holstein like udders and poor milk EPD's. When their calves put up high weaning weights it's attributed soley to the cows high growth EPD. That's because a computer can't evaluate visually. Even after 10 calves that cows milk EPD will be low. It's irrational.

EPD's certainly have their place as a tool in making breeding decisions using animals with high accuracy figures, mainly bulls who have hundreds of progeny reported from many herds. But if you know what many breeders know, that the data from which EPD's are derived is less than accurate in many instances, then you'll know they have no place in judging yearling cattle with low EPD accuracy figures. Given these facts there is really no rational argument for it.

 

[Show Heifer]

Doc, I was answering RW's question. It had nothing to do with your original post. It just seems like no one likes the judge unless it is a friend of theirs and placed their cattle high. Just a general comment.

Gonewest, I think if you read MY post, I have said, use epd's as a tool, another selection consideration. I have never said to use them exclusively. Heck, if we did that, we could all just go to shows with registeration papers in hand and leave the cattle at home.  But, I did have to laugh at your statement that said "Show animals have no progeny."  Wow, that is so true. 

RW: I'm just repeating what a "long time breeder" told me. So having a long time breeder telling you that computers haven't ruined red angus doesn't mean squat. Long time breeders usually are blinded by time and "that is they way we did it for 50 years, why change"....  I think the black angus is going through a rough time now, but just wait until they can push the fact they are the only breed that will not tolerate lethal genetic defects in the registration book. Pair that with the "don't worry about defects in the reds. Have ya ever seen one?" attitude that is widespread in the breed and you have the perfect combination for the blacks to sky rocket and squish the resurrection of the reds.

 

[Davis Shorthorns]

Gonewest, low accuracy epd's are still the best way we have to predict the outcome of a breeding decision.  That is a fact.  You can get into the whole argument that the info reported isn't accurate, but if that is so what does that say about your breed?  If there is enough people that report the information accurately then the epd's will mean something even if it is low accuracy.  Now I am with most of the people on the board with saying that judging a show using EPD's as the majority factor in making your placings is just wrong, but using epd's to break up the top pair or a something is just fine with me.  If you had two identical bulls but one had a huge BW epd and the other had a low BW epd but other than they they were the same what is really the best bull for the industry????  Use it there. 

 

[Torch]

What a sad state of affairs the cattle industry is in. Is it so corrupt that you can no longer trust your fellow breeder? The EPD's are corrupt, birth dates are fudged, pedigrees can't be trusted, genetic defects not disclosed and judges use politics to decide the winner. How disappointing.  :'(

It would seem that the show ring industry is bringing out the worst in us. What happened to the people whose word and a handshake was better than gold?

 

[Jill]

What a sad state of affairs the cattle industry is in. Is it so corrupt that you can no longer trust your fellow breeder? The EPD's are corrupt, birth dates are fudged, pedigrees can't be trusted, genetic defects not disclosed and judges use politics to decide the winner. How disappointing.  :'(

It would seem that the show ring industry is bringing out the worst in us. What happened to the people whose word and a handshake was better than gold?

Unfortunately they are few and far between!

 

[knabe]

i wonder what the epd for pasterns that slip forward and rear ends that are so high you need to photograph animals with their front feet on pedestal so it straightens them out.

personally, i think associations should get rid of the pedestals and take pictures on level ground.

granted, they are younger than a mature animal that has leveled out, but some of these animals are getting really bad.  some of it is going away with the move to earlier maturing cattle.

 

[GONEWEST]

Davis,

Gonewest, low accuracy epd's are still the best way we have to predict the outcome of a breeding decision.  That is a fact.

No, that's not a fact. read what you said. If the accuracy is low then by definition it is inaccurate.


You can get into the whole argument that the info reported isn't accurate, but if that is so what does that say about your breed?

Doesn't say anything about my breed but it does speak volumes about people in general and if you think those people in your breed are any different because they own the same kind of cattle you do you need to get your head out of the sand.

If you had two identical bulls but one had a huge BW epd and the other had a low BW epd but other than they they were the same what is really the best bull for the industry?Huh?  Use it there.

BW EPD might work, but I would say there are better measures of calving ease than a BW EPD. And what about the other EPD's what if they were the same for everything except milk or growth? Which one would you pick then? It's the reason there is not a direct correlation between the show ring and commercial cattle, nor should there be. There is no one ideal for every commercial situation. There is no one best EPD for every situation. And if as we all seem to agree they are inaccurate, how much sense does it make to use them at all?

 

[aj]

I think the Red Angus breed is unique for several reasons. They were a small breed started by a small bunch of breeders. These breeders didn't show cattle. They evaluated cattle by weighing them and NOT PAMPERING THEM. They were commercial minded guys breeding cattle by using numbers. Weaning %'s. They didn't pull calves. There was no reason to fudge on numbers cause they sincerely wanted to identify the best cattle. They used strict enviromental pressure and selected for maternal traits(udders,temperment, structural correctness) etc.  I really admire these people. Nowadays I don't know. Maybe epds aren't accurate. Show ring cattle use lose all usefullnes after about 3 generations also cause they are pampered. You have to use freaks to win shows wether it's big birth weights or poor fleshing or whatever. Structural correctness is important but if they are good enough to produce 7-10 years of age what more is required?  As far as using epds in the showring I guess I'm not sure since 80% of these cattle won't stand up to regular real world pressures anyway. I know that there are exceptions but these cattle won't win the show cause they are to practicle. I jsut admire real breeding programs and people like the original |Red Angus breeders. So much of the show ring people don't use breeding programs they just chase fads.jmo

 

[DL]

Davis,

Gonewest, low accuracy epd's are still the best way we have to predict the outcome of a breeding decision.  That is a fact.

No, that's not a fact. read what you said. If the accuracy is low then by definition it is inaccurate.

Using low accuracy EPDs is a bit like pissing into a wind storm - chances of staying clean and dry are pretty low

Using low accuracy EPDs as a tool means you are willing to accept greater risk than using high accuracy EPDs - the accuracy actually reflects the chance or risk that the number will change as more data is collected

 

[the angus111]

aj, your right and most angus (black) breeders that show dont worry about epds either.i guess you could have a epd /beauty contest and award so many points for each category.most all angus cattle at shows have interim #s ,so i like other posters couldnt see what benefit the judge could have by seeing them.the sad part is there are lot of angus cattle being sold on epd's alone.if the dam has the highest b$ than its got to be great.there has to still be live evaluation.i am guilty of buying 1 heifer sight unseen,but great epds.got her home and she had a butt like a holstein,no offense to the dairymen.she stunk from the navel back.but her epds put her in the top 2% of the breed.rusty

 

[Davis Shorthorns]

Davis,

Gonewest, low accuracy epd's are still the best way we have to predict the outcome of a breeding decision.  That is a fact.

No, that's not a fact. read what you said. If the accuracy is low then by definition it is inaccurate.


You can get into the whole argument that the info reported isn't accurate, but if that is so what does that say about your breed?

Doesn't say anything about my breed but it does speak volumes about people in general and if you think those people in your breed are any different because they own the same kind of cattle you do you need to get your head out of the sand.

If you had two identical bulls but one had a huge BW epd and the other had a low BW epd but other than they they were the same what is really the best bull for the industry?Huh?  Use it there.

BW EPD might work, but I would say there are better measures of calving ease than a BW EPD. And what about the other EPD's what if they were the same for everything except milk or growth? Which one would you pick then? It's the reason there is not a direct correlation between the show ring and commercial cattle, nor should there be. There is no one ideal for every commercial situation. There is no one best EPD for every situation. And if as we all seem to agree they are inaccurate, how much sense does it make to use them at all?

I miss spoke, on the low accuracy epd's.  Low accuracy epd's are better information than the actual bw's, WW's, and YW's.  EPD's consider environment, birth date, contempery group, etc...  Someone can skew the numbers on there animals, but not everyone does. 

My breed has many MANY problems with accuracy in epd's and people putting in wrong information.  I know this and use the epd's with caution. 

Milk and growth are two epd's that are in my personal openion ones that different breeders need different things.  You also need to remember when it comes to the cattle business in 99% of the cattle herds in the us a live calf on the ground is the number one place that money can be made or lost. 

 

[shortdawg]

True story ! I went with my Uncle to a prominent Angus breeder's herd to go through a group of bulls. We first went through the bulls and I picked what I thought was best based on phenotype, soundness, muscle expression, etc. Then we go to the office and the owner gets on his herd database and proceeds to tell my Uncle which one he should buy based soley on the EPD's he was looking at on his computer without setting foot out of the office. The kicker was the bull I liked was 1k cheaper than the bull he quoted was best by his numbers.

As long as humans have any input on EPD's of any breed they will be a certian % that wont be accurate.

 

[ROAD WARRIOR]

Quote -

"I miss spoke, on the low accuracy epd's.  Low accuracy epd's are better information than the actual bw's, WW's, and YW's.  EPD's consider environment, birth date, contempery group, etc...  Someone can skew the numbers on there animals, but not everyone does. 

My breed has many MANY problems with accuracy in epd's and people putting in wrong information.  I know this and use the epd's with caution." 

I'm not sure I can agree with this statement. I have experienced this particular scenario myself. I had 2 herd bulls that were actively used in my herd. One had a average actual BW of 76lbs over the course of 6 years, the other had an average actual BW of 82lbs over the course of 5 years. Both sets of cows and their calves were handled exactly the same, in as much the calves from both sires were ratioed against each other. One sire's BW EPD's went to a -2.8 and the other sire's BW EPD went to a 5.9. Due to this the calves produced from the first sire were "blessed" with negative BW EPD's and the calves sired by the second sire were pounded by big BW EPD's irreguardless of what the calves actual BW was. After some thought I used a "proven calving ease" AI sire on some of the cows and ran them head to head with the calves sired by the other two bulls. Long story short - the calves sired by the AI stud bull were heavier at birth than the calves by either of the other two bulls and both of the original two bulls BW EPD's dropped. Did the bull that started out as a 5+ BW EPD suddenly start siring smaller calves or was the AI calving ease bull misrepresented. The truth is that the calves sired by both bulls did not change, just the contemporary group that they were compared to and the calves EPD's.
  Interim EPD's are simply guesses based on parental EPD's with very little real world use and can be changed by contemporary groups. If you base your breeding program on these you had just as well pin a sire sale catalog to a dart board and take your chances.
  I wonder how the cattle business ever progressed before we had estimates to make our breeding our decisions for us.
  I have an idea - let's just send our papers to Denver this year and let them be judged. Think of all of the expense it would save you, no bedding, feed, 4 oclock mornings on the wash rack - life is good! RW

 

[Show Heifer]

RW: Sounds like you need to find someone that is more honest with their numbers to buy bulls from. If you deal with honest breeders, that are truly breeders and not catlle multipliers or fad chasers or photo shoppers or number manipulators, you will find the epds are a good tool to help you select an animal that will fit with your herd.